EL MERCADO DE BIENES RAICES EN MIAMI Y EL SUR DE LA FLORIDA
SOUTH FLORIDA BENEFITS FROM A STRONG ECONOMY WITH UNEMPLOYMENT RATES WELL BELOW THE NATIONAL AVERAGE, HEAVY TOURIST TRAFFIC AND ONE OF THE TOP COMMERCIAL MARKETS IN THE ENTIRE U.S. / EL SUR DE LA FLORIDA SE BENEFICIA DE UNA ECONOMIA SOLIDA CON TASAS DE DESEMPLEO MUY INFERIORES AL PROMEDIO NACIONAL, ALTAS CIFRAS DE TURISTAS Y UNO DE LOS MERCADOS COMERCIALES PRINCIPALES EN LOS EE.UU.
As an Aventura real estate agent I have noted that only a few weeks after Florida voters passed Amendment 1 in late January, there have been signs of increased activity from potential home buyers heartened by the measure’s property tax relief benefits, especially the portability provision.
While excess inventory of condominiums combined with the sub prime mortgage crisis have contributed to the current market adjustment, continued interest from international, second and vacation, and baby boomer buyers is expected to improve market conditions by the end of the year, according to several top U.S. economists.
MIAMI HOME PRICES TO INCREASE 20-30% IN FIVE YEARS
In this recent commentary titled “Miami Confidential” National Association of Realtors Chief Economist Dr. Lawrence Yun, who has been named among the top 5 economic forecasters by USA Today due to his accuracy, indicates those who buy real estate in Miami now are likely to see strong appreciation and high returns on purchase prices in just a few years despite the current oversupply of condos.
“In five years, do not be surprised if home prices in Miami are 20 to 30 percent higher than the current levels, “said Yun.
This means that in five years homes currently priced at $200,000 could sell for $250,000; a current million dollar home for $1.2 to $1.3 million. Since the current buyers’ market is conducive to price reductions as a result of negotiations, the return on investment could very well be even higher.
MIAMI SALES PRICES
In Miami, the median sales price increased over 340 percent in just 10 years. During the current market adjustment, prices have dropped some, but the drop has been negligible.
“The median home price in Miami was $80,500 in 1985 and $105,800 in 1995 and $363,900 in 2005 at the peak of the market. Prices fell by 5.7 percent for single-family homes and 6.0 percent for condos over a one-year period to the 4th quarter of 2007 according to NAR date”, said Yun.
“Prices grew 0.3 percent for single-family homes over the same period according to the government agency OFHEO”, he added.
Yun believes the main reason sales activity has decreased so much in Miami is due to fear of a market crash resulting from homes prices having grown much faster than income.
LOWER INTEREST RATES POSITIVE IMPACT
But there are key factors not being considered in the simple analysis using home price in relation to income or rent according to Yun.
“First, low interest rates, as any person with a mortgage calculator will be able to show, permit a lower monthly payment. In early 1980s, mortgage rates averaged in excess of 15%. In 2000, the average rate was 8%. Today, a 30-year fixed rate can be locked at 5.5%.
What is more important in a home price analysis is not the home price to income measurement according to Yun, but rather the mortgage obligation to income measurement, because the latter accounts for the positive impact of lower interest rates.
“In Miami, mortgage obligation to income is currently at about 30%...much lower than the 40% of San Diego and San Francisco, or that of New York”.
MIAMI: A MAJOR COSMOPOLITAN CITY
Miami is transitioning into a major cosmopolitan city and according to Yun should be compared to other world class cities.
Yun also points to wealth accumulation as a factor not considered when analyzing simple home price to income ratio in Miami.
“There is no reliable wealth or lifetime savings information at the local metro level. A financially stable retiree may have a rather low yearly income from social security checks and pension income, but that same person may have a cool million dollars or two sitting in the bank,” said Yun.
“Yet, because there s no reliable published wealth data, many analysts just use the income measure and totally ignore wealth info. Trust me New Yorkers and other snowbirds who are moving to Florida will have a thicker bank account than others.”
WHY WILL MIAMI’S HOUSING MARKET BE SO ROBUST WITHIN FIVE YEARS?
U.S. Baby boomers- Approximately 78 million baby boomers will retire over the next 10 years. “This massive group of people is just turning 60 and the more financially successful ones are on the verge of retirement. Over the next 20 years, a steady flow of wealthy retirees will be flowing into sunny, warm weather destinations,” said Yun.
Ocean views will be of particular interest to baby boomers, and they will be willing to pay high premiums for them.
Foreign Baby Boomers- “The second World War finished at the same time for Japan and Europe as in America,” said Yun. “Peace brought a spike in baby births. The financially successful baby boomers from abroad will demand a piece of the American Dream. It is a status symbol,” he added.
Nouveau Rich- According to Yun, no one likes to show off more than the people who lived through equality income and consumption. “Former communist countries like Russia and Kazakhstan are creating newly minted oil barons. Entrepreneurs are springing up en masse in Easter European countries, “he said. For these buyers, “a property in London and Miami is the ultimate conspicuous consumption.”
Yun also believes the insurances situation in Miami will improve and help boost home prices. Insurance companies that increased premiums following the 2004 and 2005 hurricanes are expected to lower rates in upcoming years, and legislative action will further help lower insurances rates.
Hace solo unas semanas después de que los votantes de la Florida aprobaran la enmienda No. 1 a fines de enero, los agentes inmobiliarios de Florida han notado señales de que ha aumentado la actividad de compradores potenciales de viviendas, animados por los beneficios de la medida para aliviar la cantidad de impuestos, especialmente la condición de portabilidad.
Mientras el inventario excesivo de “condominios” en combinación con las hipotecas inmobiliarias de alto riesgo que han contribuido al ajuste actual del Mercado, se espera que el interes continuo de compradors internacionales, de segundas viviendas y viviendas vacacionales y de los “Baby boomers” mejore las condiciones del Mercado para finales de este año, de acuerdo con varios economistas principales de los EE.UU.
PRECIO DE VIVIENDAS EN MIAMI AUMENTARAN 20 AL 30% EN CINCO AÑOS
En su comentario reciente titulado “Miami Confidencial”, el economista Dr. Lawrence Yun de la Asociación Nacional de REALTORS, que ha sido nombrado entre los cinco mejores pronosticadores y economistas por USA Today debido a su exactitud, indica que aquellos que compren bienes raíces en Miami ahora probablemente verán gran aumento en valor y ganancias sobre los precios de compra en sólo algunos años a pesar de la oferta excesiva actual de condominios.
“En cinco años, no os sorprendais si los precios de viviendas en Miami estan de 20 a 30% más alto que los actuales”, dijo Yun. Esto quiere decir que en cinco años casas que actualmente valen $200,000 podían venderse en $250,000; una casa que actualmente vale un millon de dolares se venderá de $1.2 a $1.3 millones. Debido a que el mercado para compradors actual es propicio para negociar rebajas, el rendimiento de la inversión podría ser aun más alto.
PRECIOS EN MIAMI
En Miami, el precio de venta mediano aumentó más del 340 por ciento en sólo 10 años. Durante el ajuste del mercado actual, los precios han caído un poco, pero la bajada ha sido insignificante.
“En 1985, la media del precio de una casa en Miami era $80,500; $105,800 en 1995 y $363,900 en 2005 cuando las ventas llegaron al punto máximo del mercado . Los precios cayeron un 5.7% en casas unifamiliares y 6.0% en condominios durante un período de un año hasta el cuarto trimestre de 2007 de acuerdo con los datos de NAR”, dijo Yun.
“Los precios aumentaron un 0.3% en casas unifamiliares durante el mismo período de acuerdo con la agencia gubernamental OFHEO”, añadió Yun.
Yun cree que la razón principal por la cual la actividad de ventas ha disminuido tanto en Miami es el miedo de una caída total del mercado debido a que los precios de las viviendas han crecido mucho más rápido que los ingresos.
TASAS DE INTERESES MAS BAJAS TENDRAN IMPACTO POSITIVO
De acuerdo con Yun, hay factores claves que no se están considerando en el simple análisis en cual esta utilizando el precio de viviendas en relación a ingreso o alquileres.
“Primero, las tasas de interés bajas, como cualquier persona con una calculadora hipotecaria podrá ver, permiten un pago mensual inferior. A comienzos de los años 80, el promedio de las tasas de intereses hipotecarias sobrepasaban el 15%. En el año 2000, el promedio era un 8%. Hoy en dia, se puede conseguir una hipoteca fija a 30 años al 5%.
Lo que es más importante en un análisis de precio de viviendas no es la medida del precio de la vivienda en relación a los ingresos, de acuerdo con Yun, si no la obligación hipotecaria en relación a los ingresos, por que esto ultimo toma en cuenta el impacto positivo de las tasas de intereses más bajas.
“En Miami, la obligacion hipotecaria en relación a ingresos actuales es aproximadamente un 30%...mucho menos que el 40% de San Diego y San Francisco, o de Nueva York”.
MIAMI: UNA CIUDAD COSMOPOLITA PRINCIPAL
Miami esta atravesando un periodo de transición y se esta convirtiendo en una ciudad cosmopolita de mayor importancia- y de acuerdo con Yun debe ser comparada con otras ciudades de nivel mundial, quien agrega que la acumulación de bienes es un factor que no se considera cuando se analiza el precio de viviendas a la proporción de ingresos en Miami.
“No hay información sobre riqueza o ahorros a largo plazo a nivel local. Un jubilado con estabilidad económica puede tener ingresos anuales del Seguro Social y de su plan de jubilación algo bajos, pero esa misma persona puede tener uno o dos millones de dólares en el banco, pero, como no hay datos de riqueza confiables, muchos analistas sólo utilizan la medida de ingresos y hacen caso omiso a la información de riqueza. Confien en mí los neoyorquinos y otros “snowbirds” que se están mudando a la Florida tendrán cuentas bancarias mas grandes que otros. “ Dice Yun.
¿POR QUE ESTARA TAN ROBUSTO DENTRO DE CINCO AÑOS EL MERCADO DE VIVIENDA DE MIAMI?
Niños de la posguerra de los EE.UU. (Baby boomers)- aproximadamente 78 millones de niños de la posguerra se jubilarán durante los próximos 10 años. “ Este grupo enorme de personas sólo ahora empieza a cumplir 60 años de edad y aquellos que han prosperado más económicamente, están al borde de la jubilación. En los próximos 20 años, Habrá un movimiento constante de jubilados adinerados hacia sitios soleados con climas calidos, “ dijo Yun. Las vistas al mar serán de interés en particular para los niños de la posguerra, y estarán dispuesto a pagar primas altas por ellas.
Niños de la Posguerra Extranjeros- “ La segunda Guerra Mundial terminó al mismo tiempo para Japón y Europa como en América y la Paz ocasiono un aumento repentino en el número de nacimientos. Los niños de la posguerra adinerados en el extranjero exigirán una parte del “sueño Americano”. Es un signo de prestigio, “ añadió Yun.
Nuevos Ricos- De acuerdo con Yun, a nadie le gusta mostrarse y llamar la atención más, que las personas que vivieron la igualdad de ingresos y consume. “ Ex países comunistas como Rusia y Kazajstán están creando a magnates de petróleo recién forjados. Multitudes de empresarios aparecen de países de Europa Oriental, “ dijo. Para estos compradores, “Una propiedad en Londres y Miami es el consume ostentoso máximo.”
Yun también cree que la situación de los seguros en Miami mejorará y ayudará a impulsar los valores de las viviendas. Las companias de seguros que incrementaron las primas después de los huracanes del 2004 y 2005 se espera disminuyan las tasas en los años próximos en conjunto con la acción legislativa ayudará adicionalmente a bajar las tasas de los seguros.
Friday, October 31, 2008
Friday, October 24, 2008
Denise Rubin Talks Real Estate # 3 Waterways in Aventura September 2008
The Waterways are a jewel in Aventura, situated on the north end of our small elite community. I am one of the fortunate ones to call it home. The community is “U” shaped and built around the Waterways Marina. The Waterways Marina houses some of the most exquisite yachts from around the world-featuring an inlet with no wake zone located off the Intracoastal and across the water from Golden Beach.
The Waterways were developed by Coscan builders whose dream began in the late eighties. Because each community is gated, families with small children immediately flocked to live in the safety and beauty of its confines. I was living in a waterfront home in Cocoplum in Coral Gables in 1994 until my real estate career became so busy that I decided to move to Aventura to give my boys added supervision from their grandparents who were residing there.
I found a community called Island Way on the south end of the Waterways. The Island Way community was the first home I saw, and I knew it would be the last. At the time I banked at the County National bank on the corner of Waterways and Biscayne Blvd. and the wooded fields from the bank stretched to the Waterways communities. I would see foxes when I went to the ATM at night and being an animal lover I truly enjoyed it. The quaint Waterways Shoppes have a clock tower and boardwalk jutting out to gazebo mid-water.
There are restaurants and shops galore. Kampaii is upstairs next to the dental office of my excellent Dentist Dr. Barry Segal. (Oh and don’t tell anyone-shhh!) Well hidden is the Waterways Post Office, full service without long lines! Not to mention the terrific coffee at Café Café, which has great snacks too! Other restaurants include The Peppermill, Barnios Latino’s, Sarah’s Tent, Prime Grill and more. You can watch the water, sit outside or stroll along and browse the Art Gallery or Antique Store. You will fall in love with South Florida's real estate.
The kids love the ice cream and candy store with the rides outside. It is a true family adventure. The first community in Waterways was The Portsview Condo and Town Homes built in 1988, followed by other towers and gated communities. On the south end of the Waterways is One Island Place, the first private elevator building in Aventura. One Island Place shares the same guarded gate as my community-Island Way, home to 84 homes. Some of these homes are located on the intracoastal.
Almost at the north end is the prestigious Point, which is comprised of The Courtyards of the Point Town Homes and 5 towers completed in 2004. Gated Aventura Lakes is a community of 400+ homes on sparkling man-made lakes.
I am now on the far west-end of the Waterways in my new office condo, in One Aventura Executive center. It is the home away from home for me, my superior staff and 35 savvy realtors. Who would have known?! I’m looking out the window of my private office and see the lovely vista of Aventura Lakes, Best Buy, Target, Aventura Hospital and gorgeous Gulfstream to the North, a beautiful skyline to the East, and to the west the stunning architecturally Westin Diplomat Hotel. Call Denise Rubin Realty, LLC today to learn all about what your Aventura real estate agents can show you about South Florida real estate!
The Waterways were developed by Coscan builders whose dream began in the late eighties. Because each community is gated, families with small children immediately flocked to live in the safety and beauty of its confines. I was living in a waterfront home in Cocoplum in Coral Gables in 1994 until my real estate career became so busy that I decided to move to Aventura to give my boys added supervision from their grandparents who were residing there.
I found a community called Island Way on the south end of the Waterways. The Island Way community was the first home I saw, and I knew it would be the last. At the time I banked at the County National bank on the corner of Waterways and Biscayne Blvd. and the wooded fields from the bank stretched to the Waterways communities. I would see foxes when I went to the ATM at night and being an animal lover I truly enjoyed it. The quaint Waterways Shoppes have a clock tower and boardwalk jutting out to gazebo mid-water.
There are restaurants and shops galore. Kampaii is upstairs next to the dental office of my excellent Dentist Dr. Barry Segal. (Oh and don’t tell anyone-shhh!) Well hidden is the Waterways Post Office, full service without long lines! Not to mention the terrific coffee at Café Café, which has great snacks too! Other restaurants include The Peppermill, Barnios Latino’s, Sarah’s Tent, Prime Grill and more. You can watch the water, sit outside or stroll along and browse the Art Gallery or Antique Store. You will fall in love with South Florida's real estate.
The kids love the ice cream and candy store with the rides outside. It is a true family adventure. The first community in Waterways was The Portsview Condo and Town Homes built in 1988, followed by other towers and gated communities. On the south end of the Waterways is One Island Place, the first private elevator building in Aventura. One Island Place shares the same guarded gate as my community-Island Way, home to 84 homes. Some of these homes are located on the intracoastal.
Almost at the north end is the prestigious Point, which is comprised of The Courtyards of the Point Town Homes and 5 towers completed in 2004. Gated Aventura Lakes is a community of 400+ homes on sparkling man-made lakes.
I am now on the far west-end of the Waterways in my new office condo, in One Aventura Executive center. It is the home away from home for me, my superior staff and 35 savvy realtors. Who would have known?! I’m looking out the window of my private office and see the lovely vista of Aventura Lakes, Best Buy, Target, Aventura Hospital and gorgeous Gulfstream to the North, a beautiful skyline to the East, and to the west the stunning architecturally Westin Diplomat Hotel. Call Denise Rubin Realty, LLC today to learn all about what your Aventura real estate agents can show you about South Florida real estate!
Friday, October 17, 2008
Denise Rubin Talks Real Estate # 2 FSBO’s are a waste of time October 2008
FSBO is an abbreviation meaning For Sale by Owner. The majority of owners seem to think all they have to do is list their properties on the internet, hang a sign and fill out some paperwork when it sells right? WRONG.
According to the National Association of Realtors, more than 70% of FSBO fail to sell their properties. Most individual home sellers do not know enough about CMA’s, proper pricing, the closing process and ways to reach people qualified and interested to buy their homes. In addition I am sure everyone agrees that properties in South Florida are staying on the market longer these days and the time is prolonged when sellers do not hire realtors.
Based on a recent study people who are Realtors net 16% more than FSBO’s that manage to sell themselves. Selling a home is one of the most important sales in your lifetime. Why wouldn’t you want to pay a commission? Would you have an operation if the doctor did not charge you? What matters is the amount of money you leave the closing table with.
A home in my community was listed with a FSBO company that charges a nominal fee to put the property in the MLS. Another realtor sold the property, so they had to pay an additional three percent. This was a community in Aventura, where all the homes are similar. The subject property was four bedrooms on the water, and it sold for $869,000. At the same time I listed a neighboring home for 6 percent commission. It was off the water and only three bedrooms but I sold it for $1,000,000. In this case, there was no expert advice to the homeowner and they received too little for their choice waterfront home, although they did save on the commission.
Especially in today’s market it takes a lot of expertise to sell a property, as listings have piled up more than in the last few years. An owner can try it by themselves, but will most likely end up turning to a realtor for help after wasting valuable time. If a property is vacant every month that it sits on the market costs the owner monthly upkeep, taxes, maintenance and mortgage payments. Once again, you get what you pay for and to get the right exposure you need the right realtor.
The South Florida real estate agent representing your property will do everything necessary to get the job done and sell your property for the highest price. They will put it on the MLS with pictures and offer a virtual tour, advertise locally, nationally and internationally. A skilled realtor will provide internet exposure, create a property brochure, and mail just listed cards to neighbors, his or her network and other realtors.
The right realtor will leave no stone unturned to give their property maximum exposure. Whatever the objections faced while attempting to enlist a reluctant client, a good realtor knows that winning business will require knowledge, perseverance and confidence. Aside from effectively addressing buyer objections, questions are asked to get to the core of the seller’s feelings. Once these are addressed, we are on our way to turning a FSBO to a FSB-US.
So call Denise Rubin Realty for the best results from one of our multi-lingual professionals. We speak your language. Call 305-932-9326 or visit Aventura real estate agent Denise Rubin's website.
According to the National Association of Realtors, more than 70% of FSBO fail to sell their properties. Most individual home sellers do not know enough about CMA’s, proper pricing, the closing process and ways to reach people qualified and interested to buy their homes. In addition I am sure everyone agrees that properties in South Florida are staying on the market longer these days and the time is prolonged when sellers do not hire realtors.
Based on a recent study people who are Realtors net 16% more than FSBO’s that manage to sell themselves. Selling a home is one of the most important sales in your lifetime. Why wouldn’t you want to pay a commission? Would you have an operation if the doctor did not charge you? What matters is the amount of money you leave the closing table with.
A home in my community was listed with a FSBO company that charges a nominal fee to put the property in the MLS. Another realtor sold the property, so they had to pay an additional three percent. This was a community in Aventura, where all the homes are similar. The subject property was four bedrooms on the water, and it sold for $869,000. At the same time I listed a neighboring home for 6 percent commission. It was off the water and only three bedrooms but I sold it for $1,000,000. In this case, there was no expert advice to the homeowner and they received too little for their choice waterfront home, although they did save on the commission.
Especially in today’s market it takes a lot of expertise to sell a property, as listings have piled up more than in the last few years. An owner can try it by themselves, but will most likely end up turning to a realtor for help after wasting valuable time. If a property is vacant every month that it sits on the market costs the owner monthly upkeep, taxes, maintenance and mortgage payments. Once again, you get what you pay for and to get the right exposure you need the right realtor.
The South Florida real estate agent representing your property will do everything necessary to get the job done and sell your property for the highest price. They will put it on the MLS with pictures and offer a virtual tour, advertise locally, nationally and internationally. A skilled realtor will provide internet exposure, create a property brochure, and mail just listed cards to neighbors, his or her network and other realtors.
The right realtor will leave no stone unturned to give their property maximum exposure. Whatever the objections faced while attempting to enlist a reluctant client, a good realtor knows that winning business will require knowledge, perseverance and confidence. Aside from effectively addressing buyer objections, questions are asked to get to the core of the seller’s feelings. Once these are addressed, we are on our way to turning a FSBO to a FSB-US.
So call Denise Rubin Realty for the best results from one of our multi-lingual professionals. We speak your language. Call 305-932-9326 or visit Aventura real estate agent Denise Rubin's website.
Friday, October 10, 2008
Denise Rubin Talks Real Estate # 1 Boom or Bust August 2008
I have had 30 years of experience as a Real Estate Professional, working in South Florida real estate. Having been married, divorced, and brought up 2 sons who are now in their 20’s and working with me in Real Estate. I thought I had experienced and seen it all in terms of buying and selling Real Estate. Boy was I wrong! This year I am learning a whole new vocabulary: deal – steal – shortsale – foreclosure. Not that I never heard of them before but they didn’t exist in the pocket of luxury properties I have been privy to handle.
Not anymore – as of yesterday the Multiple Listing Service shows 724 condo shortsales and 244 single family home shortsales in the 12 & 22 area alone. That area covers Aventura to Surfside only. A shortsale is when the bank agrees to work with a seller and takes less than the mortgage due amount-a lot less. I just sold a property in Porto Bellagio that my sellers owed $ 550,000 on the mortgage and the bank took $ 310,000.
A foreclosure, which in these days is an all too familiar term, occurs when the bank takes the property back from the homeowner and sells it to settle the debt. Recently having bought and built a multi-million dollar office condo and started my own company this past year I could be alarmed. I am not alarmed, however, because a lot of the short sales and foreclosures are not bargains as so many people refinanced at the height of the market.
A well priced listing or a home of an original homeowner might still be more competitive. Due to the value of the euro dollar, foreign investors are seeking great deals in sunny South Florida and take advantage of the market situation. Some of South Florida's best real estate are the luxury real estate in Aventura.
So when other Realtors complain of the “bust” in the market, I am finding it a “boom” of sorts. I have trouble keeping up with all the offers. It is just a matter of negotiating for the seller to get an acceptable price – so ignore the doom and gloom talk and call Denise Rubin at Denise Rubin Realty, LLC for positive results at 305.932.9326 and read my personal success story at www.deniserubin.com.
Not anymore – as of yesterday the Multiple Listing Service shows 724 condo shortsales and 244 single family home shortsales in the 12 & 22 area alone. That area covers Aventura to Surfside only. A shortsale is when the bank agrees to work with a seller and takes less than the mortgage due amount-a lot less. I just sold a property in Porto Bellagio that my sellers owed $ 550,000 on the mortgage and the bank took $ 310,000.
A foreclosure, which in these days is an all too familiar term, occurs when the bank takes the property back from the homeowner and sells it to settle the debt. Recently having bought and built a multi-million dollar office condo and started my own company this past year I could be alarmed. I am not alarmed, however, because a lot of the short sales and foreclosures are not bargains as so many people refinanced at the height of the market.
A well priced listing or a home of an original homeowner might still be more competitive. Due to the value of the euro dollar, foreign investors are seeking great deals in sunny South Florida and take advantage of the market situation. Some of South Florida's best real estate are the luxury real estate in Aventura.
So when other Realtors complain of the “bust” in the market, I am finding it a “boom” of sorts. I have trouble keeping up with all the offers. It is just a matter of negotiating for the seller to get an acceptable price – so ignore the doom and gloom talk and call Denise Rubin at Denise Rubin Realty, LLC for positive results at 305.932.9326 and read my personal success story at www.deniserubin.com.
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